India Hydro Power : Stocks and Industry in India

Hydro Power Potential : India is endowed with economically exploitable and viable hydro potential assessed to be about 84,000 MW at 60% load factor (1,48,701 MW Installed capacity).In addition ,6780 MW in terms of installed capacity from Small and Mini and Micro Hydel schemes have been assessed. Also,56 sites for pumped storage schemes with an aggregate installed capacity of 94,000 MW have been identified .However only 19.9% of the potential has been harnessed so far.
Advantages of Hydro Power
A renewable source of energy -saves scare fuel reserves,no pollution and hence environment friendly,Long life - The first hydro project completed in 1897 is still in operation at Darjeeling is still in operation . First hydro started by Tata group,Ability to start and stop quickly and instantaneous load acceptance/rejection makes it suitable to meet peak demand and for enhancing system reliability and stability ,Has higher efficiency (over 90%) compared to thermal (35%) and gas (around 50%) ,Cost of generation is free from inflationary effects after the initial installation ,Storage based Hydro schemes often provide attendant benefits of irrigation,flood control,drinking water supply,navigation ,recreation, tourism,pisciculture etc.Being located in remote regions leads to development of interior backward areas (education,medical,road communication ,telecommunication etc .) source NHPC Limited website. http://www.nhpcindia.com/

• In 1998,Government of India announced "Policy on Hydro Power Development" Under which impetus is given to develop Hydro Power in the country.This was welcome step towards effective utilization of our water resources in the direction of Hydro power development.During October 2001,Central Electricity Authority of India (CEA) came out with a ranking study which prioritized and ranked the future executable projects.56 sites for pumped storage schemes with an aggregate installed capacity of 94,000 MW have been identified . However,15% of the hydro Power harnessed so far and 7% is under various stages of development. Thus 78% of the potential remains without any plan for exploration. The basin wise assessed potential is as under. http://www.sjvn.nic.in/

Basin/Rivers and Probable Installed Capacity (MW)

Indus Basin - 33,832,Ganga Basin - 20,711,Central Indian River System - 4152,Western Flowing Rivers of southern India - 9430 ,Eastern Flowing Rivers of South India - 14,511,Brahmaputra Basin - 66,065 ,So Total Probable Capacity - 1,48,701 MW ,

Negative factors for Hydro Power :Technical difficult investigation , Inadequacies in tunneling methods,Financial difference in providing long term financing, tariff related issues and managerial weakness(poor contract management),Geological surprises,for example Himalaya region underground tunnel required.Inaccessibility of the area,problems due to delay in land acquisition,and resettlement of project affected families etc also Political parties opposition and social leaders movements. source http://www.sjvn.nic.in/ gt;<><><><><><><><><

STOCKS TO WATCH :

1.NHPC Ltd http://www.edelweiss.in/company/NHPC-Ltd.html : The state-run company has an installation base of 5175 MW from 13 hydro power stations,including joint venture initiatives.Currently,NHPC is engaged in construction of 11 projects having a total installed capacity of 4,622 MW,according to its website. FUTURE : NHPC aims to add over 10,000 MW of hydro power capacity by 2017 .NHPC Snapshot :Stock MCap Rs 30,198 crores ,Net Profit ~Rs 2200 crores in FY 2011.Total debt Rs 18,000 crores,Book Value Rs 20, Div Yield 2.2% . FV Rs 10. EPS Rs 1.67 ,all time High-Low Rs 42-22.Now trading Rs 24.5 near to year low. 86% shares owned by Government of India.

2. SJVN Limited: Market Capitalisation (MCap)*Rupees incrores * Rs 8700 ,Book Value Rs 16.14,Div Yield 3.8%,FV Rs 10.PE 9.4 times.Net Profit ~Rs 1000 crores, Total debt Rs 1600 crores. recently IPO Subscribed 6 times and raised ~ Rs 1000 crores . Central government There are 60 state-run companies over the next few years.There are highly scope of SJVN Limited FPO issue in coming years.

3.Patel Engineering Limited. http://www.edelweiss.in/company/Patel-Engineering-Ltd.html

http://www.pateleng.com/ : High skilled knowledge pool in Hydro Power Complex underground Tunnel engineering company in India,huge land bank is additional real estate asset,local governments delay in project pending hurts the profit projections and now company is learned big lessons,betting on power projects and predicting of excess capacity utilization of Indian power sector by year 2015. Patel Engineering Snapshot :Mcap Rs 929 crores , BV : Rs 213, Div Yield 1.5%, Stock trades Rs 140,near to 5 year low of Rs 103 .FY 2010 Sales Rs 3100 crores , net profit Rs 200 crores,Total debt Rs 2137. Investment recommended who focus year 2014-15 and beyond. only setbacks are Interest rates and financial Pending from governments.

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Infosys Ltd 1993 Feb IPO 100 Shares value today Rs 4.15 crores,Rs26.2 Laks dividends May2011

Infy has given Rs 50,000 cr in stock options since inception
Since its inception in July 1981 with a capital of Rs 10,000 that the current chairman, N R Narayana Murthy, borrowed from his wife, Infosys has given stock options worth Rs 50,000 crore to employees.

The company went for an initial public offer (IPO) in February 1993 to build a campus for 1,000 people at a cost of Rs 16.58 crore.

Even public shareholders have grown their wealth many times since the company’s IPO days. For example, 100 shares issued in the IPO at Rs 9,500 have become 12,800 shares valued at Rs 4.15 crore (as on March 31, 2011). This is an annual compounded growth rate of 59 per cent, with a total gain of 464,422 % per cent,plus Rs 26.2 laks in dividends
SOURCE: 2010 Annual Report Infosys Ltd (formerly Infosys Technologies Limited )

GLENMARK PHARMA

The path he chose was to invest in new drug discovery and chemistry: Generate profits from the generics business and invest in new drug research, a business model none of his Indian peers dared to adopt. Before him, there were no other successful models to follow for a small company like Glenmark.

His Top dream NCE i.e New Chemical Entity {cost $1billon} ,to earn money he chooses Generics and generating money pumped in Drug Discovery based NCE's.

Raja Tadvai: Invest on Glen Saldana ? a Pharma Graduate in USA return to India, joined His father company Glenmark pharma.Saldana learned a fundamental lesson while he studying at US big pharma.

He closely watched US Big pharma and learned Entire indian sales is equal to single big pharma R&D cost. wich mean no way to compare!!!

So he come out Public Issue in 1998 and started looking hi-fi MNC licence deals in triple digit numbers,thats an wake up call to Indian business circle , now he is role model in drug deals,after sanofi aventis deal of $610 million, now once again Glenmark in lime light but Investors not much cheered,because past 4 drugs failed in clinical trials .

Raja tadvai big bet on Saldana after a gap of 5 years . Reason a) Aquired Subject/ knowledge of depth of the drugs in respected therapies,
b) Quick Money:selling licenced molicules to MNC's at a Price.
c) he secure future job too,worldwide market royalty payments in double digits,plus some countries to market exclusively d)India’s first new chemical entity (NCE). Glenmark’s NCE candidate, Crofelemer, a first-of-its-kind drug for HIV-associated diarrhea,this drug coming out in next 2 years i.e 2013-14 max.

when he joined in His company turnover @ Rs 200 crore in year 2002, now Rs 3000 crores . mean while market cap grown from Rs220 crores to Rs 8300 crores.
those who invested in year 2002 @ Rs 440 now worth Rs 12,200, in dollers $10 worth now $271 .stock now Trading Rs 305 after Sanofi deal of $610 million NCE deal ,upfront payment of $50 million i.e Rs 250 crores .
To develop a NCE drug it cost $1billion plus consumes 10-15 years time,valid time patent's 20 years.

why i like : becuz after failures of many NCE drugs they are not lost money but they gained Drug knowledge which used in Generic drugs and other drugs.

Gain for sure :If any one invest Rs 100,000 might gain handsome returns in 10 years for sure . This stock looks for me 15 PE Ratio by year 2013 FY.

R&D Spending Rs 180 crores per year with 600 scientists,another 10 years it spends total Rs 3000 cores ! it is equals to current sales !. imagine Investing sotcks mean investing on scientists. Here Glen Saldana planning one drug is enough to grab entair cost of 15 years research.

India’s first new chemical entity (NCE). Glenmark’s NCE candidate, Crofelemer, a first-of-its-kind drug for HIV-associated diarrhea
If any drug Click !!! then one must be sorry,If any drugs click then Glenmark Pharma will compare with Global Pharma majors not with Indian any more.

My Estimation: 8 Times from current levels : Now trading Mcap Rs 8100 crore might reach to Rs 65,000 crores minimum by FY 2021 i.e 8 times !.
Each Year Licence One drug , Glen Saldana target . ... now world Big Pharma recognise him Gentle cat.

India Holds worlds Largest Gold Reserves with 18k tonnes

India holds the largest stock of Gold in the world,of which Indian households hold more than 18,000 tonnes.
More than two-thirds of the gold demand is from villages as 70 per cent of India lives in rural areas.
In 2010,India had purchased 32 per cent of the gold sold in the world.
India's gold demand is not influenced by its price alone.
GDP growth will fuel purchase demand
50 per cent Indian Population live under age 25 and Gold is an integral part of the wedding,the WGC anticipates wedding gold purcahses to account for demand of 500 tonnes a year.It also expects an additional 500 tonnes to be gifted during weddings.
Demand increased despite 400 per cent increase in Gold prices in last decade.
Demand : CMIE projected 3 per cent per year and 30 per cent in a decade to 1200 tonnes by 2020.

Media-Entertainment Industry & Stocks

FICCI http://www.ficci.com/ estimates Media & Entertainment sector was worth Rs650 billion in 2010 . Of this films contributed Rs96 billions,Television Rs 289 billion,animation and gaming Rs 33billion,and music and radio Rs 9 billion each.
Target audience : Housewife and the kid that are seen as the primary targets for those seeking audience.
Satellite Television(ST) : Late Prime Minister and Father of Indian Economy Sri P V Narsimha Rao efforts made tremoundus revolution on ST ,In 1991 Zee Entertainment Ltd is star,then hundreds fallowed .Now over 500 channels reaching 500 million viewers,One Hour of entertainment per household cost is just Rs 1.5 ! .
Demand : Increase in literacy and disposal Income in Tier II and Tier III cities multiplied.
Market share : South India films produced 66% in regional share.
Multiplexes : Maharastra 27,Delhi 11,Gujarat 8, : 47 in 100 .
Censor board : 15.8 Km in total length of cuts imposed on films in 2009.
DTH : Direct to Home started with vengence but Technology upgradation complete by 2015.
Spending : GDP&Media : On Gross domastic product Media spends 0.40% Vs Global spends 0.81%,surprise China spends 0.70% !. Media Spends per capita India is very low $4 compared to others .
360 Degree focus? : TV ,Print,OOH,Mobile Phones,Radio,Retail,Internet,Films
Movie Ticket Price : Bombay max Rs 25 in 1994 now Rs 250 , In AP Rs 5 max in 1994,now Rs 40-60 ,Multiplex a Sea change in pricing up to Rs 650 to Rs 2000 special box party tickets.
Box office Records : Rupees in crores.

1. Hum Aaap ke hai kaun ..!(1994) Rs 309 crores.


2. Gadar Ek Prem Katha (2001) Rs 286 crores


3. Three Idiots(2009) Rs 270 crores


4. Dilwale Dulhania le Jayenge(1995) Rs 267 crores


5. Raja Hindustani (1996) Rs 207 crores


6. Kuch Kuch Hota Hai (1998) Rs 182 crores


7. Kabhi Kushi Kabhi Gham(2001) Rs 172 crores


8. Ghajani (2008) Rs 170 crores


9. Border (1997) Rs 149 crores


10. Dhoom 2 (2006) Rs 146 crores

Source : http://www.blogger.com/www.boxofficeindia.com

Telivision : No data available, but here some top performers untill 2011.*Kyunki Saas Bhi Bahu Thi *Kaun banega karod pathi * Indian Idol * Antakshari * Tara * India's Most Wanted * Roadies * Big Boss * Rakhi Ka Swayamvar * Jassi Jaisi koi nahin

Reports :KPMG India: http://www.kpmg.com/in/en/Pages/default.aspx & FICCI on Media : http://www.ficci.com/publication-page.asp?spid=20051 STOCKS : As of now only few Stocks performed well and that to be one can count on fingers.

Media : Readership in India 350 million approximately and there were 69,323 Newspapers in the country,source https://rni.nic.in/.

Radio : Private FM Channels around 245 operational will reach a size of Rs 16 billion by 2014.Surprisingly impending Phase III auctions will only open the possibility for 800 private radio channels in 283 cities.

Social Media : A new class in Charming face So called Twitter , Facebook first in many to say.On 26/11 ,the first horrifying images of the terrorist attack reached us not through 24*7 news channels but micro-blogging sites.with a user base pegged at 100 million,India stands third in the world in terms of the surfing the net.

FICCI-KPMG 2010 Survay shows M&E Industry Report states that both Newsprint and Publishing and Media grow at the rate of 9 percent and in next 5 years and are projected to reach Rs 250 billion and Rs 20 billion respectively by 2014 .

1. UTV Software and Communication Ltd(Rs 2700 crore-MCap) : http://utvmoney.mangopeople.com/companies/utv-software-communications-ltd/UTVSOF


2. HT Media Ltd (Rs 3500 crore-MCap): http://www.edelweiss.in/sector/snapshot.aspx?seccd=Media&ind=Content Providers&subind=


3. Prime Focus Ltd (Rs 800 crore MCap): http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=532748

SHAKTI PUMPS Limited (SPL)

• Shakti Pumps Limited :Become a Limited company in 1995 http://www.shaktipumps.com/


• Dinesh Patidar 48, likes a lot @ R&D Shakti Pumps . no more conventional pumps only submersible and beyond.2008-2009 annual report he says addresable market in India is around Rs 4000 crores. Irrigation consume 70 trillion liters between 2000-2025,Water consumption by Industries is 6% in Yr2000 to 18% by Yr2050.


• Domastic water consumption 5% in 2000 to 11% in 2050.


• SPL capacity 3.5 lac units in 2009 with help of 354 dealers,Dubai,Russia demanding ,US Marketing will enhance saleshttp://en.shaktipumps.com/international/usa/. Orders securing Rs 100 crores plus. SPL is an NEMA Standards http://www.nema.org/stds/


• 2009-10 Annual directors report says Working capital : Net current assets Rs76 crores (Rs70 crores in previous) ,Fixed Assets Rs 66 crores,Products : 1.SRN Vertical multistage centrifugal pumps > is an non-self priming,vertical multistage centrifugal pump : 2.Electric motors 3.Open well submersible pumps, read more in http://en.shaktipumps.com/products/srn-pumps/


• Annual Report : cash flow page 76 or 36 ,low closing cash Rs 11 laks,umm low dividend yield make company looks not intrested by institutions http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/AnnualReport/531431/5314310610.pdf


• Products : submersible motors&pumps and India's First rated 5 star category.


• 62% of sales are exports to 50 odd countries ,sales Rs 130 crores.


• Dinesh visit UAE changed whole lifestyle of Shakti Pumps in 1987 where he saw stainless steel pumps made by Danish based Grundfos.http://net.grundfos.com/doc/webnet/sp/int/case_athens.htm


• He purchased a few and flew it to SPL's factory at Indore,which housed a machine shop,tool room,and some wire cutting machines."With a set of mechanical engineers ,we dismantled these pumps and reverse-engineered them. There were 400-odd parts,which we had to carefully look at,but we managed," recalls Patidar . source: Business India April3,2011.


• Exports starts in 1996. with Price advantage 40% ,but small still 2005 sales at Rs50 crores.However,in the past six years to 2010 sales touched Rs132 crores. Finally Bonus 1:1 ratio in 2011.


• Now State governments implimenting saving schemes and many schemes coming up to encourage thousends of orders ,among them TN government "One pole scheme" ,Rajastan government instaled for testing SPL products and saved 32% energy .


• Future Financial Estimation : "We expect the company to post an EPS of Rs 19.1 and Rs25.1 in 2011 and 2012 and Turnover Rs 180 and Rs 300 crores"by then says Patidar


• so One year share price target is Rs 201 ,giving a potential upside of 78% from the current level of Rs 132 , Patidar family holds 55% stake in SPL .


• Market capitalization Rs 88 crores.;past 5 years dividend 10% only ,but bonus in 2011 April 1:1 ratio. http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=531431


• R&D New product : SPL started R&D on "booster pumps" and have made a breakthrough,"says B R Patidar Director finance ,SPL -the 3rd brother in business.


• Future plans :SPL Started to test the pumps at Indore and is putting up a 111,000 sq ft new facility at an investment of Rs 40 crore,to manfacture 40,000 pressure boosting pumps. While Rs20 crore is coming from a term loan,the balance is expected to be arranged through internal accruals and some equity infusion. project ready by January2012. The current size of this market Rs 2000 crores and growing 25 per cent per annum.Grundfos alone is servicing a market close to Rs 300 crore in India ," Observes Patidar. Now SPL compete with CRI Pumps,Kirloskar Brothers,KSB Pumps are cater to Industrial and public sanitation applications and number of small scale players mainly restricted to agricultural pumps.


• Apart from the portable water segment SPL also plans to concentrate on waste water and industrial,catering to a large market - a move that will see SPL target institutional business. And,then, with higher volumes and big ticket size orders,margins would be even better.


• Private Equity firm Subhkam 12.05% stake sold at Rs 300 ,past history Subhkam increase stake to 12.05% ET Report...read here http://www.subhkam.com/news.asp


• Quote and other information : http://www.edelweiss.in/company/Shakti-Pumps-(India)-Ltd.html and BSE listed only http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=531431


• above report source form Business India April 3,2011 and some SPL announcements.


• As per my estimates stock now close to Year low price of Rs 83 and discount of 60% from year high of Rs 333. Edelweiss score 6 mean reasonable financial score out of 10 points http://www.edelweiss.in/company/Shakti-Pumps-(India)-Ltd.html. Edelweiss code : SHAPAM , One can bet on this history and with issue of bonus one can imagine the directors of the SPL company in coming quarters performence .


• stock market capitalisation Rs 250 crores quite easy by FY2012. from current market capitalisation of Rs 88 crores. as per Patidar estimation EPS Rs 25 by FY2012 . So a profit of 150% in just coming 4 quarters.


• Happy Investing .